Draft Special Publication 800-01: The Silverman Scale: Failure Assessment in Project Management


October 2nd 2006 - SWF announces the release of draft Special Publication (SP) 800-01, The Silverman Scale: Failure Assessment in Project Management. SP 800-01 seeks to assist information technology (IT) consultants in understanding failure and in measuring its scope in a project involving government agencies but most of the information in the publication is also applicable to large inefficient and bureaucratic organizations. It provides practical, real-world guidance for each of 11 levels of failure.

SWF requests comments on SP 800-01, including real stories showcasing one or many of the failure level presented in the document. Please e-mail at steve at success with failure dot com.

Foreword

Recent projects have shown me different types of customers, all humans in appearance but very different once you isolate them in lab-controlled idea-free environment such as a windowless meeting room. Some projects have sane people on board and will likely succeed (those are extremely rare according to the literature), and some other projects are lead by delusional fruitcakes and everyone is on a straight road to hell (with no exit in sight).

But how to you assess failure in project management? Is there any scientific way to measure bozosity? When we say "This guy is a complete bozo", we imply that partial bozosity is possible. Can we do a correlation between stupidity and technology? Gartner Group doesn't have any magic quadrant to evaluate failure, but we all know when we are in the presence of "it". Our instincts tell us something smells fishy but we cannot associate a value with it. So, in the absence of best (or fancy) practices when it comes to the subject of failure, here is an attempt to rate the thing on a scientific scale.

The Silverman Scale: Assessing Failure Hazard In Projects Involving Government Departments and Large Organizations

No Hazard (White Zone)

0

The customer behaves normally, fully understands the scope of work of the project and proceeds timely within a logic framework. People working on the project are having a good time.

The likelihood of a project failure is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. If a problem happens the consultants will be happy to correct the situation at their own expense.

Normal (Green Zone)
1

The customer behaves slightly oddly, chats occasionally about irrelevant matters during meetings but maintains a logical course of action within the project.

Project management consultants estimate that the chance of failure is extremely unlikely with no cause for high-management attention. Minor quirks may be discussed occasionally, but no significant risks are on the horizon.

Meriting Attention by Project Management (Yellow Zone)
2

The customer acts in a bizarre fashion that puzzles consultants, confuses goals and technologies from multiple projects and spends a inordinate amount of time defining a glossary for the project.

While meriting attention by the consulting firm project manager, a project failure is very unlikely. A more thorough follow-up must be made to ensure that the project is on track.

3

The customer appears out of place in the project, has difficulty understanding basic concepts and has strong opinions about non-related topics. Micro-management is prevalent, most communications are handled through gossips.

Risks concerning the project are being discussed by the consulting firm on a regular basis. Chance of total failure is unlikely but possible if the project spins out of control.

4

The customer is unaware of any past decisions in the organization including his owns, keeps redefining scope of work to meet his personal agenda du jour and could not care less about deadlines.

The project is now a failure candidate meriting attention by the consulting firm high management. An iron-fist project manager is required to prevent further degradation.

Threatening (Orange Zone)
5

The customer acts like in total illogical ways, makes actions which seriously jeopardize the project outcome and blames consulting firm for every problem including those within the customer’s organization.

The customer poses a serious, but still uncertain threat of project failure. Critical attention by consulting firm is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a major failure will occur. However, the consulting firm is sure to lose money on this project.

6

The customer behaves like a complete lunatic, erupts violently during meetings in theatrical manners and makes personal attacks to anyone challenging his viewpoint. Inanimate objects such as white boards and doors are at risk.

Mismanagement poses an unprecedented but still uncertain threat of a total failure. Critical attention by project management is needed to determine conclusively the scope of failure. The project is a financial black hole at this point, consultants won’t have any bonus this year.

7

The customer works relentlessly so his project fails. The project may be split between different consulting firms to make a diversion, the customer intently fueling internal wars just to have a good time. Budget overruns now top $5 million and the project gets noticed by the Auditor General which makes negative comments in its yearly review .

A major project failure is very likely. For such a threat, contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether or not a company-wide financial mess will occur.

Certain Failure (Red Zone)
8

The customer has completely lost grip on the project and himself, internal feuds are derailing any attempts to salvage the project whose cost hovers between $10-50 million. Sustained efforts are made by all parties to find a scapegoat. Failure is unavoidable at this point. News of the project reaches other organizations and the Auditor General makes acid comments on the project in its yearly review .

The consulting firm’s public stock sinks due to lower revenues. Significant turnover, increased burnout rate and difficulty to recruit new talents are caused by the project failure.

9

The project is being labelled as a major failure, with unprecedented cost between $50-100 million. The project is on the front-page of newspapers as one big screw-up. The head of the customer organization is likely to resign as part of the damage control strategy.

The financial mess and bad publicity is so overwhelming that the consulting firm’s local business unit closes its doors.

10

The project is a complete and total failure at this point, its cost has skyrocketed way over $100 million. Labelled as a catastrophic blunder, the project has become a major liability to the current administration.
The opposition party uses the project’s name as a flagship to emphasize the deep failure within the governing party during the upcoming election.

The entire consulting firm bleeds red ink and files for Chapter 11.

The project morphs into a new name after the next election and maintains course with a new increased budget.

 

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